Kuala lumpur: The global economy is anticipated to experience a slowdown in the second half of 2025 due to tariffs imposed on United States’ trading partners, affecting all economic actors, according to CGS International Securities Malaysia Sdn Bhd (CGS MY).

According to BERNAMA News Agency, CGS MY indicated in a research note that China has been the most impacted by these tariffs, but other US allies such as Canada, Mexico, and the European Union have also experienced negative effects. The note highlighted that US producers, wary of another trade war, have increased their purchases and stockpiled inventory, which has temporarily benefited global trade, especially in export-oriented ASEAN economies. These countries have witnessed rapid growth in shipments and trade surpluses.

However, CGS MY warns that this initial support is waning as the tariffs begin to take effect, leading US producers to focus inward, consequently reducing global demand. The ASEAN-4 nations-Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand-may experience a loss of key growth momentum without the US’s initial frontloading support.

The investment company has revised Indonesia’s 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) forecast down to 4.8 percent from 5.0 percent, while maintaining Singapore’s GDP growth at 1.6 percent. Thailand’s GDP growth is projected at 2.0 percent in 2025, amidst challenges such as dull consumption sentiment, political instability, weak international arrivals, and risks from reciprocal tariffs imposed by the former US administration.

Furthermore, driven by the loss of the US market, CGS MY suggests that China might redirect its products elsewhere, potentially outpricing ASEAN producers. The investment firm notes the importance of monitoring US bilateral talks with ASEAN countries regarding reciprocal tariffs, suspecting that agreements may be reached to address the US-ASEAN trade imbalance, which could lead to some restructuring of supply chains.