Kuala lumpur: The ringgit is anticipated to trade within the RM4.08-RM4.10 range against the US dollar in the coming week, as market participants exercise caution due to upcoming key domestic and international events, including the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the Negeri Sembilan state election.

According to BERNAMA News Agency, Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd's chief economist, Dr. Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid, highlighted that the focus will be on the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the upcoming state election in Negeri Sembilan on August 1. Many economists expect the US interest rates to remain stable between 3.5% and 3.75%. Market participants will closely analyze the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement to understand how committee members view future inflation trends, especially with the substantial increase in crude oil prices in July.

SPI Asset Management's managing partner, Stephen Innes, foresees crude oil prices as a major factor influencing the ringgit amid uncertainties about oil price directions. While there is a consensus that peace will eventually prevail and the US dollar will ease, the exact timing remains uncertain. He noted that a sustained rise in oil prices could affect the Fed's policy decisions if energy inflation starts impacting other economic sectors. However, as Malaysia is an energy exporter, the ringgit might weaken against the US dollar in a high oil price environment but could outperform other Asian currencies.

Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd, in its research note, projects the USD/MYR to trade within 4.09-4.10 next week, with a possible modest ringgit weakness as attention shifts to the US FOMC meeting. The bank also expects the Fed to maintain rates between 3.50% and 3.75%. Additionally, the markets will keep an eye on the Bank of England and Bank of Japan policy meetings, along with the US's second-quarter advance gross domestic product and core personal consumption expenditures inflation for further insights into the US policy outlook.

This week saw Brent crude prices spike above US$100 per barrel, up from US$71.57 on July 1, 2026. Deputy Finance Minister Liew Chin Tong mentioned on July 22 that each US$1 increase in oil prices per barrel could add RM300 million to government revenue.

The Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry (MITI) announced on Friday that it will continue discussions with the United States regarding the 10% forced labor-related tariff imposed on Malaysian exports, effective from July 24. This tariff follows the expiration of the temporary tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act 1974.

Meanwhile, Malaysia's trade performance showed significant improvement in June 2026, with a 44.7% growth to RM340.9 billion compared to RM235.6 billion a year earlier, driven by sustained export and import growth, according to the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM). Exports increased by 45.4% to RM177.9 billion, and imports rose 43.9% to RM163.0 billion, resulting in a 64.9% surge in the trade surplus to RM14.9 billion.

For the week just ended, the ringgit mostly strengthened due to robust Malaysian economic data. From Friday to Friday, the ringgit appreciated to 4.0885/0935 against the US dollar from 4.0930/0990 the previous week. The local currency also performed better against a basket of major and ASEAN currencies, showing gains against the Japanese yen, euro, British pound, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Philippine peso, and Thai baht.