Kuala lumpur: Indonesia's newly established export entity, Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI), is anticipated to exert only a limited impact on the nation's economy and commodity export market in the near term, easing apprehensions over significant changes to strategic commodity exports.
According to BERNAMA News Agency, RHB Investment Bank (RHB IB) has expressed that its base-case scenario predicts DSI will initially serve as a governance platform for strategic commodity exports rather than an active commercial participant. This is expected to result in limited near-term macroeconomic effects. The bank's research note suggests this scenario presents the most balanced outcome for stakeholders, enabling the government to enhance governance while permitting private exporters, overseas buyers, financial institutions, and investors to operate within a largely familiar commercial environment.
Reflecting this assessment, RHB IB has maintained its forecasts for Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 5.0 percent in 2026 and 5.1 percent in 2027. Inflation is projected at 2.8 percent and 2.7 percent respectively, with expectations that Bank Indonesia will keep its benchmark policy rate at 6.0 percent throughout the 2026-2027 period.
Established under Government Regulation No 24 of 2026, which became effective on June 1, DSI is designated as Indonesia's export state-owned enterprise for strategic natural resource commodities. This creates a dedicated institutional mechanism for government participation in the governance of selected commodity exports. The regulation grants DSI the authority to engage in designated export transactions, either as the owner of exported commodities or as an intermediary between domestic suppliers and overseas buyers. However, implementing regulations, including the commodities covered and operational procedures, are yet to be finalized.
The bank noted that Indonesia's ten largest merchandise product groups account for about two-thirds of the country's exports, underscoring the importance of strategic commodities such as coal, palm oil, and nickel, which could eventually fall under DSI's governance framework.
RHB IB mentioned that broader government participation in strategic commodity exports could enhance transparency, oversight, and national value capture over time, allowing the government to play a more active role in managing the country's strategic natural resource exports. However, a more interventionist approach might reduce commercial flexibility for private exporters, create greater uncertainty for overseas buyers and financial institutions, and prompt investors to demand a higher risk premium until DSI's operational framework becomes clearer.
The bank concluded that DSI's long-term economic significance will rely more on future implementing regulations and the evolution of the new entity's operational role in practice, rather than the legal authority granted under Government Regulation No 24 of 2026.