Cebu: Sixty-nine days into a war that nobody in Southeast Asia provoked let alone started, ASEAN leaders gathered in Cebu confronting an uncomfortable reality: even regions that pride themselves on strategic non-alignment are not shielded from the consequences of great-power conflict.
According to BERNAMA News Agency, the US-Israel-Iran war, now grinding through its third month with no sign of capitulation on the part of Iran, has shattered the myth of American military invincibility, tearing deep into the grand notion of its exceptionalism.
The conflict has exposed once again the fragility of the global economic architecture upon which much of Asia's prosperity rests. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for roughly a fifth of the world's traded oil, has become a theatre of war, leading to elevated energy prices, increased shipping insurance premiums, and exacerbated food inflation across the region. ASEAN governments, long cultivating a reputation for being insulated from global geopolitical convulsions, now find themselves facing an uneasy future.
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, participating in the 48th ASEAN Summit, emerged as a leading voice advocating for coordinated regional action. Anwar's message was clear: while the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz impacts countries globally through rising fuel prices and supply disruptions, ASEAN must focus on diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and reopen the Strait. He cautioned against drawing parallels between Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca, noting that such comparisons are exaggerated and could prompt unnecessary strategic alarmism.
Anwar emphasized the need for ASEAN to avoid protectionist measures during economic stress, warning that such actions could fracture regional production chains. Instead, he urged for deeper intra-ASEAN trade and coordination to mitigate the economic fallout from the conflict. In the plenary session, he proposed accelerating the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Petroleum Security and diversifying fossil-fuel supply sources to ensure energy security.
Food security was another critical issue addressed at the summit. Anwar called for regional standby arrangements for food emergencies and strengthening the ASEAN Plus Three Emergency Rice Reserve. He highlighted the impact of rising fertiliser prices on food production costs, which disproportionately affect lower-income households.
Discussions also covered the ongoing situation in Myanmar, where Anwar acknowledged the military authorities' calls for peace talks but criticized continued airstrikes in opposition-held areas. He reiterated ASEAN's commitment to the Five-Point Consensus and called for earnest engagement in peace efforts.
On the South China Sea, Anwar pressed for continued negotiations on the Code of Conduct with China and raised concerns over illegal fishing in overlapping exclusive economic zones. Fisheries disputes, often overshadowed by naval confrontations, pose their own risks of escalation.
On the sidelines of the summit, Anwar held bilateral meetings with regional leaders, including Singapore's Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. They agreed on a non-binding memorandum of understanding to coordinate responses to the economic consequences of the war, signaling a step towards regional cooperation.
While the Cebu summit did not produce dramatic breakthroughs, it underscored the growing recognition that energy insecurity, inflation, and supply disruptions are challenging for individual states to manage alone. ASEAN's history of producing frameworks and declarations continues, but the current crisis may generate the political urgency needed for effective implementation.