Kuala lumpur: The World Bank Group anticipates that the ongoing conflict in West Asia will have a limited impact on global food commodity prices in 2026 and 2027, compared to the effects experienced during the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This is based on the assumption that supply disruptions in West Asia will ease by mid-year.

According to BERNAMA News Agency, the World Bank's April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook report suggests that the food price index is expected to increase by two percent in 2026 and by one percent in 2027 year-on-year. This represents an upward revision of three percentage points for both years relative to January 2026 projections. The report, recently released, was shared on the World Bank's X account today.

The World Bank highlighted that the conflict in West Asia is influencing food prices through elevated energy and fertiliser costs, although some spring season fertiliser purchases were made before the conflict began. Grain prices, particularly wheat and maize, are projected to rise by two percent in both 2026 and 2027 due to anticipated production declines after improvements and increased stocks-to-use ratios in 2025-2026.

The report forecasts that wheat and maize prices will increase by four percent in 2026, with additional gains of three percent for wheat and one percent for maize in 2027. Additionally, the fertiliser price index is expected to surge by over 30 percent in 2026, driven by higher input costs, especially for nitrogen- and phosphate-based fertilisers, and strong demand.

However, the World Bank noted that this increase is considerably lower than the sharp spikes seen in 2021 and 2022. Palm oil and soybean oil prices are also forecast to rise by eight percent in 2026 and stabilize in 2027, influenced by higher domestic use for biodiesel in major exporting countries and conflict-related oil supply disruptions in West Asia.

Furthermore, the report mentions that natural rubber prices are projected to increase by more than seven percent in 2026, with a slight further rise in 2027, supported by steady demand growth in emerging markets and developing economies.