Kuala lumpur: Malaysia's full-year export growth in 2026 could surpass the current forecast of 22 percent if the current momentum continues, according to MBSB Investment Bank Bhd (MBSB IB).
According to BERNAMA News Agency, MBSB IB stated that import growth might also exceed its 16 percent forecast, compared to the 6.0 percent recorded in 2025. The expected export growth is set at 22 percent, significantly higher than the 6.6 percent seen in 2025. The bank noted that strong demand for electrical and electronics (E and E) and technology products will continue to drive external demand, though the outlook remains susceptible to risks such as supply disruptions, elevated input costs, weaker final demand, and renewed trade tensions.
MBSB IB highlighted that Malaysia's total trade growth accelerated to 43.4 percent year-on-year in August 2026, up from 37.2 percent in July, marking a 12th consecutive month of double-digit expansion. Export growth strengthened to 45.5 percent year-on-year in August, surpassing market expectations, and was supported by stronger domestic exports and re-exports.
Imports also grew faster at 41.1 percent year-on-year, driven by higher purchases of intermediate and capital goods. The data indicates that Malaysia's external trade momentum remained strong despite softer monthly trade values. Outbound shipments were notably driven by E and E products, which rose 66.5 percent year-on-year and contributed significantly to the total export growth in August.
Other manufactured products, liquefied natural gas, petroleum products, machinery, equipment and parts, manufactures of metal, and optical and scientific equipment also supported August's expansion. However, exports of palm oil and palm oil-based products fell 15.5 percent year-on-year due to weaker demand from major markets like India and Kenya.
On a monthly basis, exports declined 1.3 percent month-on-month after an 8.8 percent rebound in July, while imports fell 4.7 percent month-on-month following a 5.5 percent increase in July. Despite this, the trade surplus widened to RM28.1 billion from RM22.5 billion in July. For the first eight months of 2026, total trade expanded by 27.0 percent year-on-year, with exports and imports rising 31.2 percent and 22.4 percent, respectively. The cumulative trade surplus widened to RM198.7 billion, an increase of 127.6 percent year-on-year from RM87.3 billion in the first eight months of 2025, contributing positively to economic growth.