Kuala lumpur: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has maintained its projection for Malaysia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 4.5 percent in 2025 and 4.0 percent in 2026.

According to BERNAMA News Agency, the IMF’s October 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) update titled “Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim” had earlier set Malaysia’s 2024 GDP growth at 5.1 percent. For emerging market and developing economies, the IMF has forecasted growth to moderate to 4.2 percent in 2025 and 4.0 percent in 2026, down from 4.3 percent in 2024.

The IMF indicated that this projection remains largely unchanged from its July WEO Update, representing a cumulative upward revision of 0.6 percentage points from the April 2025 WEO. However, it is lower than the October 2024 forecast by a cumulative 0.2 percentage points, with low-income developing countries experiencing a more significant downward revision than middle-income economies.

As for growth in emerging and developing Asia, the IMF expects a decline from 5.3 percent in 2024 to 5.2 percent in 2025, further reducing to 4.7 percent in 2026. The evolution of growth forecasts for several countries in the region, particularly in ASEAN, closely mirrored changes in effective tariff rates.

In China, the 2025 GDP growth forecast was revised downward by 0.6 percentage points in the April 2025 WEO, attributed to escalating trade tensions between China and the United States. This was followed by an upward revision of 0.8 percentage points in the July WEO Update after a pause on higher rates in May.

The IMF also noted a stronger-than-expected performance in recent quarters, driven by increased international trade and robust domestic consumption supported by fiscal expansion in 2025. These factors have offset the challenges posed by higher uncertainty and tariffs.