Kuala lumpur: Crude palm oil prices are expected to stabilize within the range of RM4,000 to RM4,300 per tonne in March 2026, influenced by tightening near-term supply, increased demand from India, and strong United States soybean oil prices.

According to BERNAMA News Agency, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) highlighted that the ample global soybean supply and the rise in Chinese soybean oil exports could limit potential price increases.

China's emergence as a net exporter of soybean oil, a status achieved for the first time in 2025, is expected to continue into 2026, with projections of exports around 850,000 tonnes. Nearly half of China's soybean oil exports were destined for India last year, according to the MPOC statement.

MPOC also noted that palm oil fundamentals are anticipated to gradually improve in the coming months. Malaysian exports are expected to be robust in the first quarter, and Indonesia is front-loading shipments before the March export levy hike, both factors likely to reduce palm oil inventories in the two countries.

Malaysia's palm oil production decreased seasonally to 1.58 million tonnes in January, a drop of 13.8% from the previous month. However, exports increased to 1.48 million tonnes, an 11.4% rise from December 2025, representing the second-highest monthly export volume in the past year. The increase in exports was mainly due to heightened demand from India and Egypt, with shipments to India reaching a 15-month peak and exports to Egypt climbing to a 13-month high.

On the demand side, India is predicted to shift its consumption back towards palm oil due to improved price competitiveness since late 2025. Palm oil consumption in India is expected to grow by 800,000 tonnes in 2026, while soybean and sunflower oil consumption is forecasted to decline by a combined 400,000 tonnes. January 2026 data already reflects this trend, with India's palm oil imports rising to a four-month high, whereas soybean oil imports fell to an 11-month low.