Kuala lumpur: CIMB Treasury and Markets Research has maintained its forecast for Malaysia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 4.5 per cent in 2026, despite the US Supreme Court striking down the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs.

According to BERNAMA News Agency, on February 20, the US Supreme Court struck down Trump's IEEPA-based tariffs, including his reciprocal tariffs. Following the Supreme Court's decision, the US president reinstated a 15 per cent tariff from February 24 for 150 days, reducing levies on most Asian exporters. In a research note today, CIMB Treasury and Markets Research stated that the decision to retain the projection is based on the fact that the tariff regime and trade agreements remain in flux.

The research note further elaborates that under a more constructive scenario where the 15 per cent tariff is sustained with minimal net impact from substitution effects, Malaysia could see potential growth uplift by 0.10 percentage points. With strong export tailwinds, the decrease in US effective tariffs from 15.3 per cent to 13.2 per cent does not significantly impact growth or policy rates.

CIMB Treasury and Markets Research also noted that refunds from the US$150 billion to US$175 billion in IEEPA tariffs are likely to be partial and staggered due to legal procedures.