Kuala lumpur: Brent oil surpassed US$100 per barrel for the first time since July 2026 as the escalation in the United States (US)-Iran conflict, including attacks on oil tankers and Saudi Arabia's energy facilities, raises concerns about further supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. At the time of writing, Brent crude jumped 2.72 percent to US$100.60 per barrel.
According to BERNAMA News Agency, Quintex Intel global strategist Stephen Innes stated that the situation remained extremely fluid and markets had to prepare for the possibility that elevated oil prices would persist well into 2027. He remarked, "Around US$100 per barrel for Brent is reasonable over the next month while the conflict remains unresolved. A serious disruption to Saudi Arabia's production, further tanker losses or a deeper closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push Brent materially above US$100."
On September 8, Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis launched missile and drone attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in Abha, Najran, and Jazan, triggering fires and forcing operations at some energy facilities to be halted. On the same day, US forces destroyed five Iranian crude oil tankers in response to attempted ballistic missile attacks on a US Navy warship over the preceding two days.
Conversely, Innes noted that credible diplomacy and a normalization of shipping flows could pull prices back quite quickly, emphasizing that the physical market was tight but it was not yet signaling an outright shortage of crude oil. Brent is now roughly 65 percent higher year-to-date, using the first 2026 futures settlement as the comparison point of US$60.75 per barrel for Brent crude on January 2, 2026.
Innes estimated that the geopolitical premium in Brent is roughly US$15 to US$16 per barrel, indicating that a significant part of US$100 Brent reflects war risk, shipping uncertainty, and the possibility of a much larger disruption, rather than an immediate absence of physical barrels. Sustained US$100 per barrel oil could contribute to global inflation, making central banks more cautious about easing policy, particularly in energy-importing economies.
However, Innes pointed out that the current situation was not the same oil shock experienced in the 1990s, as economies were less oil-intensive, electric vehicle (EV) penetration was much greater, and the broader energy transition has reduced the direct transmission from crude prices into economic activity. He stated, "The inflation impact is still important, but probably less destructive than comparable historical shocks."
As for Malaysia, higher oil prices were a mixed blessing rather than an outright positive. Higher petroleum revenues, Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas)-related income, and potentially stronger export receipts provide a significant cushion, said Innes. However, he warned that prolonged US$100 oil also raises fuel, freight, transport, and broader input costs throughout the economy. "Malaysia is therefore better positioned than most Asian oil importers, but the benefits on the production side have to be weighed against higher inflation and costs facing households and businesses," he added.