Kuala lumpur: Malaysia External Trade Development Corporation (MATRADE) has maintained its 2026 trade growth projection of three per cent to five per cent, underpinned by a cautious outlook amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia.
According to BERNAMA News Agency, MATRADE's chairman, Datuk Seri Reezal Merican Naina Merican, said recent trade performance, particularly March data, provides an early indication of conditions that may unfold in the coming months. He acknowledged that escalating tensions could trigger a global recession, potentially necessitating a revision of their projections. He plans to wait until the end of April to observe emerging patterns.
Reezal Merican highlighted that West Asia contributes about 2.7 per cent, or RM21.41 billion, of Malaysia's total trade, indicating limited direct exposure. He emphasized the need for close monitoring due to potential indirect effects such as higher goods prices, rising freight costs, and elevated war risk premiums, which could impact export competitiveness and overall trade performance.
Malaysia experienced steady trade performance growth in the first quarter of 2026, with exports increasing by 12.7 per cent to RM426.53 billion. The trade surplus also saw a significant 54 per cent surge, reaching RM63.22 billion compared to the same period last year.
Despite this growth, MATRADE's internal monitoring and industry data reveal that 90.5 per cent of manufacturers are currently impacted by global disruptions, notably through rising logistics costs and raw material shortages. MATRADE anticipates the adverse effects will become more pronounced from the second quarter onwards.
Reezal Merican urged Malaysian exporters to diversify their product offerings into other industries such as food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, and energy. He emphasized MATRADE's aim to shift the national dialogue from acknowledging 'crisis impact' to adopting a stance of 'proactive facilitation.'
He stated that through intelligence, digital innovation, and targeted government support, MATRADE would ensure Malaysian exporters remain shielded from global shocks to maintain the nation's trade momentum while minimizing the impact of disruptions.
Reezal Merican explained that MATRADE is enhancing its monitoring capabilities by leveraging its 47 overseas offices as Frontline Intelligence Hubs. These offices provide exporters with real-time data on port connectivity and tactical routing, facilitating solutions like rerouting cargo to stable regional hubs and exploring alternative land or railway routes.
He added that the role of trade commissioners is evolving to identify supply gaps arising from geopolitical tensions and to source alternative materials, helping to keep Malaysian industries operational even when traditional supply lines are strained.