London: Global sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) output is expected to reach 1.9 million tonnes (Mt), or equal to 2.4 billion litres, this year, double the 1 Mt produced in 2024, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). However, in 2026, SAF production growth is projected to slow, reaching only 2.4 Mt.

According to BERNAMA News Agency, the estimated SAF output for 2025 (1.9 Mt) is a downward revision from IATA’s earlier forecasts due to a lack of policy support to take full advantage of installed SAF capacities. Also, SAF production in 2025 represents only 0.6 per cent of total jet fuel consumption, increasing to 0.8 per cent the following year. At current price levels, the SAF premium translates into an additional US$3.6 billion (US$1 = RM4.11) in fuel costs for the industry in 2025.

IATA senior vice-president for sustainability and chief economist Marie Owens Thomsen stated that current policies are evidently not having the desired effect, given the low SAF production volumes. She emphasized that regulators must course-correct to ensure the long-term viability of SAF production and achieve scale so that costs can come down.

She also criticized existing mandates, stating they have had the opposite effect, and expressed concerns about repeating the same mistakes with electro-SAF (e-SAF) mandates. E-SAF mandates are government regulations requiring fuel suppliers to blend increasing percentages of low-carbon SAF into jet fuel, with specific sub-mandates for e-SAF (power-to-liquid) to drive decarbonisation of aviation by using renewable electricity for production.