Accra:Global growth is expected to decelerate to 3.1 percent in 2026 from 3.5 percent in 2025 before recovering to 3.4 percent in 2027, as reported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
According to BERNAMA News Agency, the IMF's October 2026 World Economic Outlook indicates that the global economy's growth is being redistributed across countries due to the impacts of war-induced supply shocks and the demand driven by artificial intelligence (AI).
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is anticipated in March 2027, with a return to prewar conditions expected by October 2027. This gradual process implies a steady restoration of production, shipping, insurance, and payment systems rather than an immediate normalization of energy flows. Additionally, energy prices are forecasted to remain elevated, with the average petroleum spot price index at US$96 a barrel in 2026, which is 16 percent higher than the April 2026 forecast.
Natural gas prices, based on Title Transfer Facility futures, are projected at US$20 per million British thermal units, approximately 36 percent higher than the previous forecast. Meanwhile, the global technology cycle driven by AI is expected to stabilize, and productivity growth is projected to remain consistent.
Fiscal policy in emerging markets and developing economies is predicted to tighten gradually. The IMF also projects a rise in global headline inflation to 4.7 percent in 2026, up from 4.1 percent in 2025, before decreasing to 4.1 percent in 2027.
In emerging markets and developing economies, including Malaysia, growth is expected to slow to 3.7 percent in 2026 from 4.5 percent in 2025, with a rebound to 4.4 percent in 2027. The outlook varies due to differences in commodity dependence, exposure to the West Asia conflict, financial conditions, and positions in the global technology value chain. Several Southeast Asian economies are projected to gain from data center activity and the upturn in the global technology cycle, benefiting also from emergency fiscal measures in some cases.