London: Total air passenger demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), experienced a 2.2 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in May 2026, as reported by the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Notably, excluding the Middle East, demand showed a growth of 0.7 per cent y-o-y during the same period.

According to BERNAMA News Agency, the total capacity, calculated in available seat kilometers (ASK), saw a reduction of 2.3 per cent y-o-y. Despite this, the load factor reached 83.5 per cent, marking an increase of 0.1 percentage points (ppt) compared with May 2025, setting a new record high for the month of May.

On the international front, demand decreased by 1.6 per cent y-o-y in May 2026. However, when excluding the Middle East, there was a 3.1 per cent growth in demand. Additionally, capacity experienced a 2.4 per cent y-o-y drop, while the load factor improved to 83.7 per cent, up by 0.7 ppt compared with the previous year.

Domestic demand saw a contraction of 3.1 per cent compared with May 2025, with a capacity decrease of 2.1 per cent y-o-y. The load factor for domestic travel stood at 83 per cent, a decrease of 0.8 ppt compared to May 2025.

Willie Walsh, the IATA director general, highlighted that the significant 28.4 per cent y-o-y decline among carriers in the Middle East, attributed to the ongoing conflict in West Asia, was a major factor in the overall 2.2 per cent decline in demand for May 2026. Despite this, the region showed resilience with an improvement from the 46.6 per cent decline recorded in April.

Walsh also noted contractions in demand in North America and Asia, primarily due to domestic market conditions in the United States and China. Despite the challenges posed by high fuel prices and airfares, he stated that May's demand remained largely resilient.

He further commented on the recent drop in oil prices, calling it an encouraging development, though he cautioned that challenges stemming from the war might persist. With oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz being uncertain, airlines operating with a narrow margin may continue to test demand resilience with higher fares to cover elevated fuel costs.