Geneva: Global aircraft delivery shortfalls in 2025 now total at least 5,300 aircraft, making aircraft availability one of the most significant constraints on industry growth, according to the Geneva-based International Air Transport Association (IATA).

According to BERNAMA News Agency, IATA’s director for flight and technical operations, Stuart Fox, highlighted that the order backlog has surpassed 17,000 aircraft, representing almost 60 percent of the active fleet. Historically, this ratio was steady at around 30 to 40 percent, and this backlog is equivalent to nearly 12 years of the current production capacity, he stated during the IATA Global Media Day.

While deliveries of new aircraft began to pick up in late 2025 and production is expected to accelerate in 2026, Fox noted that demand is forecast to outstrip the availability of aircraft and engines. He also mentioned that the normalisation of the structural mismatch between airline requirements and production capacity is unlikely before 2031 to 2034, given irreversible losses in deliveries over the past five years and a record-high order backlog.

Fox further explained that the average fleet age has risen to 15.1 years, with 12.8 years for aircraft in the passenger fleet, 19.6 years for cargo aircraft, and 14.5 years for the wide-body fleet. As production bottlenecks continue, delivery delays are compounded by several factors, including airframe production outpacing engine production and longer timelines for new aircraft certification. These delays particularly impact the long-haul fleet renewal.

Additionally, tariffs on metals and electronics resulting from United States-China trade tensions have worsened some supply bottlenecks and raised maintenance costs. A shortage of skilled labour, especially in engine and component manufacturing, is also constraining production ramp-up plans.

Fox also noted that the fragility of the aerospace supply chain could become an acute constraint amid economic uncertainty, shifting tariff regimes, and tight labour markets. Even small disruptions can be difficult to resolve and can balloon into significant production delays, he added.