Vietnam’s production and business recovered in the first quarter of this year, but are still encountering many obstacles, including adverse impacts of the global pandemic and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, said local and international organisations.
According to Vietnam’s General Statistics Office (GSO), under the Ministry of Planning and Investment, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.03 percent in the first quarter of this year, compared with 4.72 percent in the same period last year, and 3.66 percent in the first quarter of 2020 creating a springboard for economic growth in the next quarters of 2022.
“Vietnam’s economy gradually recovered with production and business activities being speeded up in the first quarter of this year. The country will post higher GDP growth in the second quarter because of its comprehensive reopening and better containment of COVID-19,” local economist, Dinh Trong Thinh, a veteran lecturer of the Academy of Finance, said.
According to him, the highlight of Vietnam’s economic growth in the first quarter of 2022, when global supply chain began to resume and regain momentum, was the remarkable acceleration of a “three-horse carriage,” namely investment, export and consumption.
Between Jan and Mar, the realised social investment capital at current prices stood at 562.2 trillion Vietnamese dong (24.4 billion U.S. dollars), posting a year-on-year rise of 8.9 percent.
In the three-month period, the realised foreign direct investment capital increased by 7.8 percent to over 4.4 billion U.S. dollars, the first-quarter biggest amount, over the past five years. Meanwhile, Vietnam welcomed nearly 91,000 visitors, up 89.1 percent from the same period last year, after it reopened the tourism market, resuming many international air routes.
Regarding export, the country earned nearly 88.6 billion U.S. dollars from shipping goods, including 15 items with each export turnover of over one billion U.S. dollars, in the first quarter of this year, surging 12.9 percent. It gained a trade surplus of 809 million U.S. dollars.
Meanwhile, total retail sales of consumer goods and services stood at 1,318 trillion Vietnamese dong, up 4.4 percent year on year.
However, the economist expressed his worry about a potential high inflation rate. “I am afraid that the consumer price index (CPI) this year may double against last year,” he said, noting that, CPI increased 1.84 percent in 2021, and grew 1.92 percent in the first quarter of 2022, when many countries in the world faced the biggest price hike in several decades.
To realise the economic growth target, Vietnam will centre on taking seven groups of measures, including effectively curbing the COVID-19 pandemic, while assisting enterprises in recovering and developing in the 2022-2023 period; controlling prices of essential goods and services and ensuring their supplies; boosting domestic production, including electricity generation; fostering the local market, as well as, export in a sustainable way; quickly recovering the tourism market; accelerating administrative reform; and actively dealing with natural disasters, she said.
On Apr 5, the World Bank lowered its forecast for Vietnam’s GDP growth this year to 5.3 percent, down from the projection of 6.5 percent it made last Oct.
Over 78 percent of the Vietnamese population is fully vaccinated, but the economy still faces serious downside risks, from possible new variants, the global ripple effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, rising commodity prices and economic slowdown, in its major export markets, said the bank.
On Apr 6, the Asian Development Bank predicted Vietnam’s economy would expand 6.5 percent this year, when developing economies in Asia are set to grow 5.2 percent amid global uncertainty. (1 U.S. dollar equals 22,862 Vietnamese dong)
Source: NAM News Network