Kuala lumpur: Global fertiliser and ammonia trade is facing potential disruption as the sale of 15 per cent of global ammonia and 21 per cent of urea, a high-nitrogen fertiliser, hinges on West Asian exporters who may be affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

According to BERNAMA News Agency, the exporters include major producers such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, with Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iran, and Iraq also playing significant roles. These disruptions pose a threat to an already strained ammonia and urea market, with implications for food and agriculture supply chains, particularly in countries heavily reliant on these trade flows.

Minh Khoi Le, Rystad Energy's senior vice president and global head of hydrogen, highlighted that more than one-fifth of urea traded by these West Asian exporters is crucial for crop growth and farming. India is notably vulnerable, importing approximately six to eight per cent of its fertiliser from these Gulf nations. The closure of the strait could lead to immediate downstream risks, including food shortages, manufacturing disruptions, compromised water integrity, and other significant global challenges, depending on the conflict's duration.

The global ammonia trade was approximately 10.9 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) in 2025, a decrease from 12.3 Mtpa in 2024. It is estimated that around 15 per cent of this could be impacted by a prolonged blockade of the strait, particularly affecting Saudi Arabia, where most of the supply and trade occur on its east coast. For urea, the exposure is more significant, with global trade at about 50.8 Mtpa in 2025, and approximately 10.6 Mtpa originating from the affected countries, mainly Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE.

While producers with operations in other regions can increase fertiliser production, areas like Europe often encounter higher production costs, which could lead to increased food prices and potential inflation risks. However, Rystad Energy noted that advancements in green and electrolytic ammonia might offer a partial solution by enhancing supply security and reducing nitrogen fertilisers' dependency on fossil fuels.