Kuala lumpur: Global oil prices could remain elevated if the West Asia conflict escalates further in the absence of a ceasefire, independent research and energy intelligence company Rystad Energy said today. Chief executive officer Jarand Rystad mentioned that such a scenario will require demand destruction of up to 10 million barrels per day, comparable to the contraction seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, he stressed that this is not the base case, noting that a ceasefire remains the more likely outcome as prolonged escalation will be detrimental to all parties involved.
According to BERNAMA News Agency, Rystad emphasized that a ceasefire is more plausible since continued conflict would result in losses for everyone involved. He speculated on the potential control of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, which could allow passage for friendly nations and impose fees on other vessels. However, Rystad acknowledged the complexity of this scenario, especially for the United States, making future developments uncertain.
Historically, oil prices have shown volatility during geopolitical crises, with significant price swings noted. For instance, prices surged to about US$144-US$145 per barrel in July 2008 before dropping sharply amid the global financial crisis. Similarly, prices fell below US$20 during the COVID-19 pandemic due to demand shocks and a supply glut. Recently, Brent crude oil reached an intraday high of US$119.50 per barrel on March 9, 2026, following the West Asia conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Rystad Energy recently released its white paper, 'Advancing Offshore Energy Responsibly in Asia'. The report projects a 15 percent increase in global energy demand over the next 15 years, necessitating significant investments in both conventional and low-carbon energy sources. To align with global climate goals, total global energy investment may need to exceed US$5 trillion annually by 2045.
The white paper highlights offshore energy as a crucial component of Asia's future energy mix. It forecasts an average regional offshore energy investment of around US$150 billion annually through 2035. This investment will support continued oil and gas development and the expansion of offshore clean energy technologies. Offshore wind, carbon capture and storage, and floating solar are expected to play vital roles in the region's energy transition, leveraging Asia's strong manufacturing capabilities in renewable energy supply chains.