Kuala lumpur: The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) anticipates that palm oil prices will remain above RM4,400 per tonne until the end of 2025, amidst weak crude oil prices and elevated vegetable oil inventories in significant consumer markets like China and India. The organization attributes this trend partially to escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, as well as an increase in global soybean stocks.
According to BERNAMA News Agency, vegetable oil prices are expected to stay firm through the rest of 2025, bolstered by the strength in palm and soybean oil markets. The MPOC statement highlights that declining exportable soybean oil supplies from Argentina are likely to drive prices upwards in the coming months, while speculation regarding Indonesia’s B50 mandate will continue to provide support to palm oil prices.
MPOC reported that palm oil has regained its premium over soybean oil in the global market, with prices in mid-October showing a US$42 per tonne advantage in Europe and a US$26 per tonne advantage in India, reversing the brief discount observed between April and September.
Furthermore, Malaysia’s palm oil exports increased by 102,000 tonnes, or 7.7% month-on-month, to 1.42 million tonnes in September, with most regions showing growth except the European Union and Asia Pacific. The most significant increase came from South Asia, with exports to India reaching 312,000 tonnes, the highest in 11 months. Shipments to Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, the Americas, and Central Asia also rose during this period.
MPOC noted that palm oil stocks in September climbed to 2.36 million tonnes, the highest level in 22 months, even though export growth outpaced production. This increase was largely attributed to domestic consumption normalizing to its usual range of 300,000 to 350,000 tonnes per month, following a record monthly high of 499,000 tonnes in August. Additionally, imports rose by 20,000 tonnes, or 33.9% month-on-month, further contributing to the stock accumulation.