Kuala lumpur: Research houses have maintained their end-2026 forecast for Bank Negara Malaysia's (BNM) overnight policy rate (OPR) at 2.75 per cent, citing BNM's constructive assessment of Malaysia's growth outlook and expectations of contained inflation.
According to BERNAMA News Agency, CGS International stated that the latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) statement points to firmer growth, supported by stronger-than-expected exports, robust demand in the electric and electronic (E and E) sector, and improving global prospects. The comparison between the latest MPC statement and the one issued earlier in May 2026 indicates an overall neutral policy stance, with a more constructive view on gross domestic product (GDP) growth as concerns over supply disruptions ease and growth prospects improve.
CGS International also noted that domestic demand continues to benefit from favourable labour market conditions, steady wage growth, and ongoing policy support. Improving global supply chain conditions and recovering non-E and E exports are expected to provide additional support.
Public Investment Bank Bhd (PIBB) also projects the OPR to stay at 2.75 per cent till the end of 2026. The July statement retained a broadly neutral policy tone, but the macro assessment has turned more constructive than in May. BNM expressed more confidence about Malaysia's growth path, indicating resilient second-quarter growth driven by sustained domestic demand and stronger-than-expected export performance.
PIBB emphasized that the E and E demand remains robust, with additional support expected from a rebound in non-E and E exports, particularly in petrochemicals and oil and gas production as facilities return from maintenance. The bank's reference to its four to five per cent growth forecast reinforces its confidence in the domestic growth buffer, despite external shocks.
On inflation, PIBB noted that the tone remains contained rather than hawkish. Although BNM acknowledged some initial pass-through from higher global cost pressures, the impact on headline and core inflation is expected to remain contained. The inflation impulse is largely external and cost-push, with limited evidence of broad-based demand-driven pressure.
Apex Securities Bhd highlighted that the policy tone has turned slightly more positive. Improving supply conditions and prices of key commodities are supporting global and domestic growth outlooks. While BNM remains comfortable with the current OPR level, it could turn more hawkish should there be signs of higher-than-expected inflation.
Overall, with the growth and inflation outlook remaining broadly intact, analysts expect BNM to maintain the OPR at 2.75 per cent through 2026.