Kuala lumpur: Apex Securities Bhd is maintaining its cautiously optimistic stance on Malaysia's trade outlook, anticipating that the trade momentum will sustain following January's strong export performance.
According to BERNAMA News Agency, the firm highlighted that the outlook is supported by steady global growth, resilient demand from the United States, and robust global semiconductor growth driven by the artificial intelligence-led tech upcycle.
The firm noted, however, that the recent export surge may be influenced by low-base effects, with growth expected to moderate in the second half of 2026 due to the higher base from the previous year. Global trade conditions remain fluid, with uncertainties arising from tariff developments, geopolitical tensions, and a firmer ringgit.
Apex Securities has maintained its 2026 export growth forecast at 4.8 per cent year-on-year and the gross domestic product (GDP) forecast at 4.7 per cent, pending further clarity on tariff developments. The firm also sees no immediate need for Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to adjust the policy rate amidst the fluid trade dynamics, suggesting that BNM will likely adopt a wait-and-see approach.
In terms of capital goods imports, which slowed to 2.3 per cent year-on-year from December's 27.1 per cent, Apex Securities views this as a temporary pause. The firm anticipates that infrastructure rollout and data centre expansion will maintain investment momentum in 2026, forecasting steady investment GDP growth of 9.3 per cent year-on-year.
Apex Securities also foresees intermittent volatility following the imposition of a 15 per cent global tariff by US President Donald Trump for 150 days, as trade terms are renegotiated and alternative tariff pathways are explored. The firm identifies potential semiconductor tariffs as a key risk for Malaysia, especially as the Trump administration considers alternative tariff strategies.
The 15 per cent tariff rate is slightly lower than Malaysia's previous 19 per cent reciprocal tariff. The administration has indicated plans to use the 150-day window to implement other 'legally permissible' tariffs. One option under consideration is to leverage Section 301 of the US Trade Act, which allows for a lengthy US Trade Representative investigation process and no tariff rate limits, with measures potentially lasting up to four years.
The US retains the leverage to pressure trading partners into agreements like the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) to prevent renewed trade tensions. Apex Securities does not expect these developments to materially alter the global trade landscape.
Trump announced the tariff increase from 10 per cent to 15 per cent, following a US Supreme Court ruling that invalidated most of his earlier trade measures. He stated on Truth Social that the increase, imposed under Section 122, would take effect immediately and would be in addition to existing tariffs.