Boston: Malaysia is expected to become an important exporter of fresh durian to China following an agreement cemented last year between the two countries, said BMI.

According to BERNAMA News Agency, BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, stated that the agreement signed in June 2024 allowed Malaysia to export fresh durian into China. Previously, Malaysia was limited to exporting only frozen pulp and whole frozen fruits.

Citing data from the International Trade Center, BMI noted that Malaysian fresh durian exports to China totalled US$4 million in August, September, and October 2024. The organization forecasts continued strong demand for durian fruit from China and anticipates increased investment in the sector over the short to medium term, while also highlighting the risks of overreliance on a single import market.

BMI also expressed that Malaysia and Vietnam are expected to provide significant competition to Thailand in the durian export market. Both countries are experiencing significant growth in durian exports, which could challenge Thailand’s position as the largest global exporter.

Thailand is currently the world’s largest exporter of the fresh ‘king of fruits’, accounting for 63.8 percent of all exports between 2013 and 2023. Thailand’s durian exports have shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.8 percent over the past ten years and 8.6 percent over the past five years, indicating strong industry momentum.

BMI expects market concentration to decrease in the near term with growth in production and exports from alternative markets. The organization also highlighted the increasing significance of durian production in Vietnam, which poses a risk to the country’s coffee industry as some farmers choose to plant durians instead of coffee. However, increased intercropping could enhance farm resilience.