Kuala lumpur: Kenanga Research has revised its forecast for Malaysia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 5.0 per cent, higher than its earlier estimate of 4.0 per cent. Its forecast is premised on stronger-than-expected economic performance despite recent signs of export softness.

According to BERNAMA News Agency, the upward revision lifts Kenanga's full-year 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.8 per cent. The research house noted that while November's export softness signals near-term weakness, they anticipate a rebound ahead of the Chinese New Year season.

Kenanga highlighted that potential impacts from the United States tariff measures are expected to be delayed until the following year, which limits immediate downside risks to growth in 2025. In terms of trade performance, the investment bank observed that exports growth eased to 7.0 per cent in November from 15.7 per cent in October, marking the weakest pace in three months and falling below expectations.

Month-on-month, exports declined 5.6 per cent, compared with a 6.7 per cent increase in October, aligning with seasonal trends as November typically records softer growth. Meanwhile, Kenanga noted that import growth strengthened, driven mainly by higher capital goods and imports of intermediate goods.