Kuala lumpur: Crude palm oil (CPO) prices are poised to gain robust support at RM4,100 to RM4,200 per tonne in December 2025, with potential to rise towards RM4,500 per tonne, as per the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC).

According to BERNAMA News Agency, the council attributes this forecast to consistent import demand leading up to the Chinese New Year and Ramadan, coupled with Indonesia’s policy uncertainties which continue to bolster palm oil prices. The Indonesian government is reportedly considering adjusting export duties to secure sufficient domestic feedstock. The potential shift to a higher biodiesel mandate, whether B45 or B50, in Indonesia remains a significant factor affecting exportable supplies in 2026, MPOC noted in a statement.

Malaysia witnessed a remarkable 11 per cent increase in palm oil production, reaching 203,000 tonnes in October, the highest monthly output in a decade. Sabah led this growth with a 19.5 per cent month-on-month rise to 72,000 tonnes, followed by Sarawak’s 14.6 per cent increase to 61,000 tonnes, and a 6.5 per cent gain in Peninsular Malaysia at 68,000 tonnes. MPOC highlighted that the strong production in October was facilitated by the delayed monsoon, improved fertilisation, and favourable rainfall patterns throughout 2024.

October also saw a significant rise in exports, which increased by 18.6 per cent or 265,000 tonnes, reaching 1.69 million tonnes. Sub-Saharan Africa was the primary driver of this improvement, with exports reaching a record 577,000 tonnes, accounting for 34 per cent of Malaysia’s total exports. Exports to China also surged to a five-month high of 110,000 tonnes. Despite this export growth, Malaysian palm oil stocks rose to 2.46 million tonnes in October, the highest since April 2019, due to softer domestic consumption, according to MPOC.

The council also reported a substantial increase in Malaysia’s palm oil imports from Indonesia, amounting to 708,000 tonnes between January and October 2025, a 266 per cent rise from the previous year. On a global scale, palm oil prices decreased by four per cent in November as stocks accumulated, while prices for sunflower, soybean, and rapeseed oils remained largely unchanged. This has widened palm oil’s discount relative to other soft oils. As of mid-November, palm oil was trading at a US$120 discount to sunflower oil, and US$48 and US$34 below soybean oil and rapeseed oil, respectively.