Kuala lumpur: CIMB Treasury and Markets Research anticipates that Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) will maintain the overnight policy rate (OPR) at 2.75 percent during its final Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on November 6, supported by strong macroeconomic indicators.

According to BERNAMA News Agency, CIMB’s research note suggests that while an early-2026 rate cut is not off the table, it would depend on ongoing weaknesses in non-electrical and electronic (E and E) exports and a slowdown in business and working capital credit growth. If these conditions persist, they could prompt a 25-basis-point reduction in the first quarter of 2026.

The research note highlights a stable 4.3 percent growth forecast for 2025, with a slight decrease to 4.1 percent in 2026, driven by steady private consumption, favorable labor market conditions, civil service wage adjustments, and targeted cash programs. The Visit Malaysia Year 2026 campaign, aiming for 47 million tourist arrivals, is expected to provide additional economic momentum.

According to the Investment, Trade and Industry Ministry (MITI), Malaysia’s trade demonstrated resilience in September 2025, with a 9.8 percent year-on-year growth to RM257.51 billion, reversing a previous decline despite global trade uncertainties. Export growth was robust for the third month in a row, increasing by 12.2 percent year-on-year to RM138.68 billion, while imports grew by 7.3 percent to RM118.82 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of RM19.86 billion.

MITI reported that export growth was observed across all sectors, with the manufacturing sector, led by E and E products, recording its highest value with an increase of nearly RM11 billion.

CIMB Treasury and Markets Research also noted that inflation is expected to remain modest, with the first nine months of 2025 at 1.4 percent. Monetary policy conditions are anticipated to stay accommodative. Looking forward, private consumption in 2026 is predicted to be resilient, bolstered by a strong labor market, civil service pay adjustments, and targeted financial assistance programs totaling RM15 billion.

The Visit Malaysia Year 2026 initiative is expected to further stimulate domestic demand and service activities, contributing positively to the economy.