Kuala lumpur: BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, expects Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to leave the overnight policy rate (OPR) on hold at 2.75 per cent at its next meeting on July 9, following the central bank's May 7 rate decision.

According to BERNAMA News Agency, BMI stated there was little concern on the inflation front, with headline inflation edging higher to 1.7 per cent in March from 1.4 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) in February 2026 as unsubsidised fuel prices spiked. However, the inflation rate remains comfortably within the government's target for inflation to average 1.5 per cent to 2.5 per cent and the long-term average of 2.0 per cent.

BMI expressed confidence that BNM would maintain the OPR at 2.75 per cent for the rest of the year. While BNM acknowledged that elevated global commodity prices might nudge inflation higher, it reiterated its expectation for the impact to 'remain contained' due to ongoing subsidy measures that will keep a lid on price pressures. BMI has retained its forecast for inflation to average 1.9 per cent in 2026.

On export performance, BMI noted that the external sector remained resilient, with data showing exports rising 12.7 per cent y-o-y in the first quarter of 2026, supported largely by artificial intelligence-related tailwinds. Looking ahead, BMI expects the trade surplus to remain robust as the ongoing semiconductor upcycle shows little sign of moderation. This suggests that exports of electronics and electrical goods, closely tied to global semiconductor sales, will help strengthen Malaysia's trade position.