Kuala lumpur: AMMB Holdings Bhd (AmBank Group) expects Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow at a moderate rate of around four per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025 (2Q 2025), supported by continued front-loading activities that benefit the external sector. Its chief economist Firdaos Rosli noted that the growth momentum observed in the first quarter of 2025 is likely to ease in the second quarter due to weaker industrial output.
According to BERNAMA News Agency, Firdaos expressed that the GDP for the second quarter is anticipated to ease slightly, primarily due to the softer industrial production index (IPI). However, he indicated that the overall growth should remain in the low four per cent range. He shared these insights with reporters after participating as a panellist at the National Economic Forum 2025.
Firdaos further elaborated that the strong performance in the first quarter was likely driven by early economic activities, although external challenges are expected to impact the subsequent quarter. For the entire year, the bank projects GDP growth at 3.8 per cent, slightly below the World Bank’s forecast of 3.9 per cent. Weaker consumer and investment confidence continue to affect the overall economic momentum, reflecting broader signs of a slowdown.
Tariff uncertainties remain a significant concern, particularly given the bilateral nature of trade decisions in the United States, Firdaos highlighted. The Department of Statistics Malaysia is set to announce the advance GDP estimates for 2Q 2025 tomorrow, with an official announcement following on August 15, 2025.
Regarding the overnight policy rate (OPR), Firdaos stated that AmBank expects it to remain at 2.75 per cent until the end of the year. On July 9, Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) reduced the OPR by 25 basis points to 2.75 per cent as a pre-emptive measure to preserve Malaysia’s steady growth path amid moderate inflation prospects. BNM last kept the OPR at 2.75 per cent in March 2023, before increasing it to three per cent in May 2023.