Kuala Lumpur: Malaysia’s advance gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow by five percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 (4Q 2024), a slight moderation from the 5.3 percent growth recorded in the third quarter of 2024 (3Q 2024), according to CIMB Securities Sdn Bhd.

According to BERNAMA News Agency, CIMB Securities highlighted in a recent note that Malaysia’s distributive sales growth slowed to 4.7 percent year-on-year in November 2024, compared to 5.5 percent in October 2024. This deceleration was observed amidst slower retail sales, while wholesale and motor vehicle trades maintained relatively steady growth rates.

The note further detailed that in November 2024, retail sales increased by 5.8 percent, wholesale trade grew by 4.7 percent, and motor vehicle sales saw a gain of 1.4 percent. Despite the slowdown in November, the distributive trade sales exhibited a resilient growth of 5.1 percent year-on-year during October and November 2024. This matched the pace of the previous quarter (3Q 2024: +5.1 percent), providing a stable foundation for the GDP growth in 4Q 2024, even as the moderation in industrial activity impacts the overall performance for the quarter.

Additionally, the labour market in November 2024 showed improvement, with employment growth of 1.4 percent year-on-year and an unemployment rate of 3.2 percent, marking its lowest since 2015. Notably, there was a 26.1 percent increase in tourist arrivals during the first 11 months of 2024.

CIMB Securities also forecasts that private consumption and service activities are expected to grow by 5.5 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively, in 2025, alongside a projected five percent GDP growth. The growth expectations for private consumption and service activities are anticipated to be driven by strong domestic spending and a recovery in external demand.

The Statistics Department Malaysia is set to release the 4Q 2024 GDP estimates this Friday.